Positive surprises from government reports on retail sales, industrial production, and housing in the past few months are leading economists to revise their real gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts upward supporting the notion that the recession ended in December or January.

Bear in mind: This recovery won’t have the vitality normally associated with an upturn. Economists now expect real GDP growth of about 1.5 in the first quarter. That’s better than the 0.4 the consensus projected in December, but much of the additional growth will come from a slower pace of inventory drawdowns, not from surging demand.

Moreover, the economy won’t grow fast enough to help the labor markets much. The only good news there is that jobless claims have fallen back from their spike after September 11 and that their current level suggests the pace of layoffs is easing.

The recovery also does not mean the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. The January price indexes show that inflation remains tame. Consequently, the Fed can take its time shifting monetary policy from extreme accommodation to relative neutrality.

Perhaps the best news from the latest economic reports was the January data on industrial production. Total output fell only 0.1, its best showing since July. Factory output was flat, also the best performance in six months. Those numbers may not sound encouraging, but manufacturers have been in recession since late 2000. The data suggest that the factory sector is finding a bottom from which to start its recovery.

Production of consumer goods, for instance, is almost back up to where it was a year ago. That’s because consumer demand for motor vehicles and other goods and the housing industry remained healthy during the recession, and they are still growing in early 2002.

Besides, both the monthly homebuilding starts number and the housing market index for the past two months are running above the averages for all of 2001, suggesting that home-building is off to a good start and probably won’t be big drag on GDP growth this year.

Equally important to the outlook is how the solid housing market will help demand for home-related goods and services. Traditionally, consumers buy the bulk of their furniture, electronics, and textiles within a year of purchasing their homes. Thus, spending on such items will do well this year, even as car sales slip now that incentives are less attractive. Look for the output of consumer goods to top year-ago level in coming months.

Even the business equipment sector seems to have bottomed out. Its output rose 0.4% in January, led by a 0.6% jump computer gear. A pickup in orders for capital goods in the fourth quarter suggests that production will keep increasing—although at a relaxed pace—in coming months.

1. American economists are surprised to see that______.

[A]they have to revise the GDP forecasts so often

[B]their government is announcing the end of a recession

[C]US economy is showing some signs of an upturn

[D]GDP growth reflects stronger domestic demand

2. The most encouraging fact about the US economy is that_____ .

[A]employment rates have risen faster than expected

[B]the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon

[C]industrial production is reaching its lowest point

[D]some economic sectors have become leading industries

3. Of which of the following did the author provide a guardedly optimistic view?

[A]GDP growth. [B]The number of layoffs.

[C]Price indexes. [D]Output of consumer goods.

4. Which of the following is the guarantee of a better future for US economy?

[A]Motor vehicles. [B]Housing market.

[C]Business equipment. [D]Computer gear.

5. Which of the following best summarizes the U. S. economic situation today?

[A]American economists are painting a gloomy picture.

[B]It is slowly warming up with moderate growth.

[C]Recession may come back anytime in the coming months.

[D]Most sectors are picking up at a surprisingly fast pace.

參考答案

1.C 2.C 3.A 4.B 5.B

1.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】這是一道涉及對第一、二段理解的事實細節(jié)題。第一段是一句話段落，其主干結(jié)構(gòu)是positive surprises…lead economists to… supporting the notion that…。該段提到政府報告帶來的意外驚喜使經(jīng)濟學家將對國民生產(chǎn)總值的預測上調(diào)，從而支持了經(jīng)濟衰退期已在12月或1月終止的觀點。由一段中的“意外驚喜”和“經(jīng)濟學家上調(diào)國民生產(chǎn)總值預測的舉措”可知讓他們吃驚的是經(jīng)濟狀況好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象，即[C]項為正確答案。

第一、二段只提到經(jīng)濟學家對GDP預期的一次調(diào)整，無法推出他們頻繁地修改。排除[A]項。由第一段可知，政府只報導了各個領(lǐng)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的好勢頭，而未宣布經(jīng)濟衰退期的終止。排除[B]項。第二段末句but轉(zhuǎn)折后提到，但是(GDP)增長部分主要是因為存貨提用的速度減緩，而不是需求的增長(surging demand)，由此排除[D]項。

2.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】本題考查了多處事實細節(jié)。第三段第二句提到，惟一的好消息是申請失業(yè)保險金人數(shù)在9?11事件后達到的高峰期開始回落，現(xiàn)在的水平表明失業(yè)的速度(the pace of layoffs)有所緩和(easing)。該句表明失業(yè)者還在增加，只是增加的速度低于先前。因此，[A]項與文意相反。[B]項與第四段首句“經(jīng)濟復蘇并不意味著美聯(lián)儲將很快提高利率”含義相反。第五段首句是段落主題句：最近的經(jīng)濟報道中最好的消息來自1月份工業(yè)生產(chǎn)的數(shù)據(jù)。末句對主題予以說明：數(shù)據(jù)表明工業(yè)生產(chǎn)部門的產(chǎn)量正在達到底線，復蘇即將開始。[C]項是對該句的改寫，是正確選項。文中雖然提到很多經(jīng)濟部門，但沒有比較誰是主導產(chǎn)業(yè)，排除[D]項。

3.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】本題實際考查了多處事實細節(jié)。第二段提到，GDP雖然有所增長，但其增長大多因為存貨提用的速度減緩，而不是需求的增長。而且該段首句也提到：這次經(jīng)濟復蘇不具有通常經(jīng)濟好轉(zhuǎn)所具有的活力。因此作者對GDP的增長是持保守態(tài)度的。

[B]項在第三段提到，即申請失業(yè)保險金人數(shù)的下降表明失業(yè)的速度有所緩和。[C]項在第四段第二句中出現(xiàn)，即1月的價格指數(shù)表明通貨膨脹仍然很緩和(remained tame)。[D]項在第六段至第九段都有所涉及。因此作者對這三個方面抱有的是很明確的樂觀態(tài)度。

4.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】本題考查了第六段至第九段的事實細節(jié)。這四個段落提到了備選項中四個經(jīng)濟生產(chǎn)部門。第六段提到，消費品的生產(chǎn)幾乎回到了一年前的水平，因為對汽車及其他物品的消費需求以及房屋產(chǎn)業(yè)在經(jīng)濟衰退期間都保持了健康發(fā)展。第七段提到，過去兩個月的月住宅建筑和房產(chǎn)市場相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)都在整個2001年的平均數(shù)以上。這表明住宅建筑有了好的開始，可能不會成為今年GDP增長的累贅。第八段提到，穩(wěn)固的房產(chǎn)市場可以刺激對房屋相關(guān)物品和服務的需求，如家具、電子產(chǎn)品和紡織品。期望消費商品的產(chǎn)量在未來的月份里超越年前的水平。第九段提到，甚至辦公設(shè)備部門的生產(chǎn)似乎都要降至最低點。它的產(chǎn)量因電腦設(shè)備0.6%的漲幅在1月上升了0.4%。

概括而言，汽車是消費者需求的對象，辦公設(shè)備和電腦設(shè)備的產(chǎn)量只是小幅度的增長，只有房產(chǎn)市場不僅呈現(xiàn)良好發(fā)展勢頭，而且還帶動其他生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展。因此[B]項正確。

5.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】這是一道涉及對全文主旨理解的考題。綜合全文，作者對美國經(jīng)濟進行了客觀、全面的分析。從第二至四段的內(nèi)容可知，作者對GDP的增長原因、經(jīng)濟對勞動市場的影響、美聯(lián)儲提高利率的措施都持有謹慎的樂觀態(tài)度。但是作者也指出失業(yè)的速度有所緩和(三段末)，美聯(lián)儲的貨幣政策相對中性化(四段末)，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)部門的產(chǎn)量正在達到底線，復蘇即將開始(第五段)，辦公設(shè)備部門將以比較緩和的速度繼續(xù)增長(第九段末)。因此[B]項恰當?shù)馗爬嗣绹慕?jīng)濟形勢。

文章開篇就提到，政府報告帶來的意外驚喜使經(jīng)濟學家對國民生產(chǎn)總值的預測上調(diào)。排除[A]項。首段提到，有觀點認為經(jīng)濟衰退期已在12月或1月終止。但下文只描述了經(jīng)濟的復蘇趨勢，因此[C]項不符合。[D]項錯在surprisingly fast pace，文中大量出現(xiàn)表示“適中、溫和”含義的關(guān)鍵詞，如tame，neutrality，relaxed pace等，表明經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展速度是緩慢的。

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